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SaaS & Technology

Churn Prediction & Retention System

How we reduced churn by 35% for a B2B SaaS company using predictive analytics and customer health scoring.

35%
Churn reduction
4 weeks
Project timeline
85%
Model accuracy

1The Challenge

A B2B SaaS company providing project management software was experiencing 18% monthly churn, well above their industry benchmark of 5-7%. They had no systematic way to identify which customers were at risk before they cancelled, and their customer success team was reactive rather than proactive.

By the time CS reached out to struggling customers, the decision to leave had already been made. The company had usage data, support ticket data, and billing data, but no way to synthesize it into actionable insights about customer health.

Key Pain Points:

  • 18% monthly churn rate, far above industry average
  • No way to predict which customers would cancel
  • Customer success team was reactive, not proactive
  • Usage, support, and billing data siloed in separate systems
  • Lost $200K+ in annual recurring revenue to preventable churn

2The Solution

We built a predictive churn model using machine learning that analyzed usage patterns, support interactions, and billing history to identify at-risk customers before they cancelled. The system generated customer health scores and automated alerts to the CS team.

What We Built:

1. Data Integration & Feature Engineering

Consolidated usage data (login frequency, feature adoption, active users), support data (ticket volume, response time, sentiment), and billing data (payment history, plan changes) into PostgreSQL. Created 30+ features for model training.

2. Churn Prediction Model

Built a Random Forest classifier using Python and scikit-learn trained on 18 months of historical data. Achieved 85% accuracy in predicting churn 30 days before cancellation.

3. Customer Health Score Dashboard

Created real-time health score dashboard in Metabase showing each customer's churn risk (0-100 scale), key risk factors, usage trends, and engagement patterns.

4. Automated Alert System

Set up automated Slack alerts when customers entered "high risk" category, with recommended interventions based on specific risk factors (e.g., low usage, support issues, billing problems).

Tech Stack

Pythonscikit-learnPostgreSQLMetabasepandasSlack API

3The Results

Within 4 weeks, the CS team went from reactive firefighting to proactive retention. They could identify at-risk customers 30 days before cancellation and implement targeted interventions. Over 3 months, churn dropped from 18% to 11.7%—a 35% reduction.

35% churn reduction
From 18% to 11.7% monthly churn rate
85% prediction accuracy
Model correctly identified at-risk customers
30-day advance warning
Time to intervene before cancellation
$280K ARR saved
Retained revenue from prevented churn

Key Outcomes:

  • Predictive churn model with 85% accuracy identifying at-risk customers 30 days early
  • Real-time customer health score dashboard with risk factors and engagement trends
  • Automated Slack alerts for high-risk accounts with recommended interventions
  • Usage pattern analysis showing feature adoption and engagement over time
  • Saved $280K in annual recurring revenue by preventing cancellations

This system completely changed how we do customer success. Instead of reacting to cancellation requests, we now reach out proactively to struggling customers before they've even decided to leave. Our churn is down 35% and our CS team feels like they finally have the tools they need to succeed. This has been the best investment we've made this year.

— VP of Customer Success, B2B SaaS Company

Project Details

Timeline

Week 1:Data integration & feature engineering
Week 2-3:Model training & validation
Week 4:Dashboard & alert system

Investment

$11,000

Included model development, dashboard, alert system, documentation, and 1 month of model tuning support.

$280K ARR saved in 3 months

Struggling with high SaaS churn?

Let's build a predictive system that identifies at-risk customers before they cancel.